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‏إظهار الرسائل ذات التسميات egyptPresident‪‪. إظهار كافة الرسائل
‏إظهار الرسائل ذات التسميات egyptPresident‪‪. إظهار كافة الرسائل

6/21/2017

How Egypt and Saudi are serving Israel by transferring Sanafir and Tiran

6/21/2017 0
How Egypt and Saudi are serving Israel by transferring Sanafir and Tiran
How Egypt and Saudi are serving Israel by transferring Sanafir and Tiran

in 1967, Egypt announced a blocked the Straits of Tiran to cut Israel's access to international waters; it was then that Israel started the Six Day War.
The small islands of Sanafir and Tiran are located between Egypt and Saudi Arabia at the top of the Red Sea and they are considered to be strategically important because of their proximity to ports in Jordan and Israel.
Barely a month before Israel launched the Six Day War against Arab countries, Gamal Abdel Nasser’s Egypt announced a blockade of Israel’s access to the Red Sea (international waters) via the Straits of Tiran, which Israel considered as an act of war. As a result, less than a month later, Israel launched a surprise strike which began the Six-Day War. From that time on, the two strategic islands, Sanafir and Tiran are placed under the authority of Egypt.
Two weeks ago, Cairo agreed to hand control over the two islands — Tiran and Sanafir — to Riyadh in exchange for the creation of a $16-billion investment fund.
This announcement was made after secret negotiations in which Israel was involved due to the limitation clauses of the peace treaty at Camp David in 1979. In other words, the transfer of the two islands to Saudi Arabia helps Israel more control over the strategic straits of Tiran and circumvent the Camp David limitations in this regard, as Saudi has already given solid assurances in this regard.
“There is an agreement and commitments that Egypt accepted related to these islands, and the kingdom is committed to these,” Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir told Egyptian television in an interview two weeks ago.
He was apparently referring to the military annex of the Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty, which ensured Israel’s “freedom of navigation through the strait of Tiran”
Israeli Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon later said that Saudi Arabia gave written
assurances over Freedom of passage in Tiran straits.
   
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/06/egypt-lawmakers-approve-island-transfer-saudi-arabia-170614142446099.html
Saudi Arabia has also promised not to use the islands for military purposes, the Egyptian daily Al Ahram reported.
According to documents from a military source, Tiran Island will be used as the headquarter of a joint operation between Tel Aviv and Riyadh in the Red Sea.
In 2015, a number of Saudi Arabia officers also attended in a training course at the naval base Polonium in the port of Haifa, the military source disclosed.
This proves that Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt are involved in a new era of geo-strategic and diplomatic relations which may be considered as a major event in tripartite relations.
Egypt therefore has just shifted the sovereignty of the two inhabited islands of the Red Sea, Tiran and Sanafir to Saudi Arabia. The islands are south of Suez and between the two countries.
Indeed, north of the Gulf of Aqaba is the city and Israeli port of Eilat. The transfer of the two islands is of major strategic importance to the Zionist entity considering that the closure of the Strait of Tiran would mean a major crisis for Israel and will most likely lead to a regional war .
Israel has good relations with Egypt since the Camp David peace accords between the two countries who share security interests, including the fight against the Palestinian resistance in Gaza.
As for Saudi Arabia, Egypt remains a strategic ally, in particular regarding the issue that Riyadh has serious tensions with Iran, and also with respect to the conflicts in Syria and Yemen.
The transfer of these two islands to Riyadh, also shows an increasingly strong connections between Saudi Arabia and Israel. Although the two countries still lack formal links, and while Saudi Arabia does not recognize the existence of the Zionist criminal entity, the Israeli-Saudi dialogue has been an open secret for several years in the geopolitical world. Indeed, senior officials from both countries met in public on several occasions.
We are witnessing the reconfiguration of regional relations with the emergence of an alliance, Saudi Arabia – Egypt – Israel, whose main objective is very clear: to counter the growing power of the Islamic Republic of Iran, the spearhead of the anti-Zionist resistance.
It is sad to see the apathy of the Muslim world which faces the treachery of its leaders, joining the axis of oppression besides collaborating with the Israeli criminal state.
On Tuesday 13th of June, dozens of Egyptian journalists protested against the agreement in central Cairo before being dispersed by the police.
The announcement of the agreement in April 2016 had sparked rare protests in the country despite a heavy handed crackdown on demonstrations.
Generations of Egyptians had grown up learning in school that the two islands belonged to their country and that soldiers had died defending them during wars with Israel.

4/26/2017

Egypt: Video of extrajudicial executions offers glimpse of hidden abuses by military in North Sinai

4/26/2017 0

video Appears to Show Egyptian Soldiers Killing 

Unarmed Men in Sinai




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 A video has emerged that appears to show members of the Egyptian military shooting unarmed detainees to death at point-blank range in the Sinai Peninsula and staging the killings to look as if they had happened in combat.
The leaked video, which was posted on social media on Thursday, could undercut claims made by the Egyptian Army in December that the men were suspected terrorists who died in a fight with the military.
The video was released the same day that Defense Secretary Jim Mattis met in Egypt with its president, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, to discuss improving their countries’ military relationship. It also comes after human rights groups accused the Egyptian military of killing up to 10 men in January in a staged counterterrorism raid in Sinai.
The three-minute video, which was released through a channel associated with the 




Muslim Brotherhood, appears to depict part of a raid that the Egyptian Army highlighted in a Facebook post on Dec. 6, 2016. That post included photos of three bloody men in a grassy area with rifles next to them. The post said they had been killed in a military raid on a terrorist base and an explosives storehouse.
Eight people were killed and four others were arrested, the military said on Facebook in December, as Egyptian armed forces “continued to tighten their security grip” in the Sinai Peninsula, where the country has waged a yearslong battle.
But the video shows no firefight and starts with soldiers mingling next to an armored truck in a sandy field scattered with bodies next to shrubs and grassy patches. But it does show the killing of at least three people. In one case, a soldier casually holds a rifle over a man on the ground and shoots him in the head. In another, soldiers escort a blindfolded man into the field, place him on his knees and shoot him multiple times in the head and upper body.
The pro-state Egyptian news site Youm7 called the video a fabrication carried out by the Muslim Brotherhood, which is banned in the country, and said the people in the video did not have Egyptian accents. An Egyptian military spokesman did not respond to a request for comment late Thursday.

 one point in the video, a man off camera tells a soldier in Arabic to shoot the captured men in a variety of places. “Don’t just do the head, O.K.? Don’t just do the head,” the person said.
In addition to the three men seen killed, the video shows two men lying on the ground who were apparently in the Facebook post. The same men included in the Facebook post in December were apparently also shown in a military video shared on YouTube in November for an operation that claimed to have killed eight terrorists “during clashes.”
Sarah Leah Whitson, the executive director of Human Rights Watch’s Middle East and North Africa Division, which released a report about the January killings, said the group was investigating the latest video.
“We have not yet verified the video, and are working on it,” Ms. Whitson said in an email. “But it accords closely with our findings about other summary executions in Sinai and Cairo.”
Mokhtar Awad, a militancy expert at George Washington University, said the video was unlikely to be widely discussed on Egyptian news media because of emergency laws enacted by Mr. Sisi last week after suicide attacks by the Islamic State on two Christians churches on Palm Sunday.
“The worst thing I’ve seen before is of soldiers beating a guy,” Mr. Awad said. “We’ve never seen video from Sinai or elsewhere showing an Egyptian serviceman killing someone in cold blood.”
Together with the accusations of extrajudicial executions in Sinai in January, Mr. Awad said, it suggested “a growing level of impunity” in parts of the Egyptian military, particularly in Sinai where local emergency laws have been in place for years.
“It is a significant problem, and something that needs to be seriously addressed,” he said. “Otherwise things could head in a very problematic direction, of this somehow becoming a new normal.”


11/23/2015

The Emirati plan for ruling Egypt بن زايد للسيسي أنا مش مكنة فلوس

11/23/2015 0


The UAE has expressed frustration towards Egypt aftering giving nearly $25bn in aid (AFP) 


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A top-secret strategy document prepared for Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan reveals that the United Arab Emirates is losing faith in the ability of Egypt's President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi to serve the Gulf state’s interests.
The document, prepared by one of Bin Zayed’s team and dated 12 October, contains two key quotes which describe the frustration bin Zayed feels about Sisi, whose military coup the Crown Prince bankrolled, pouring in billions of dollars along with Saudi Arabia. It says: “This guy needs to know that I am not an ATM machine.” Further on, it also reveals the political price the Emiratis will exact if they continue to fund Egypt.
Future strategy should be based on not just attempting to influence the government in Egypt but to control it. It is summarised thus: “Now I will give but under my conditions. If I give, I rule.”
Egypt, which has recently tried to stem a run on the Egyptian pound, is heavily dependent on cash from the Emirates, which has become the largest foreign direct investor. At an economic conference in Sharm el-Sheikh in March, the prime minister of the UAE and ruler of Dubai, Sheik Mohammed bin Rashid al-Maktoum, revealed the UAE had already given Egypt $13.9bn and he pledged $3.9bn more. The real amount of aid Sisi got from the Emiratis is thought by analysts to be closer to $25bn, around half of the total Gulf aid to Egypt.
Only $16.4bn remain, and of those only $2.5bn are in gold, according to a former Egyptian official who spoke to MEE on the condition of anonymity. The rest is in the form of loans. This is insufficient for covering the import of basic commodities for two months.  
The document, seen exclusively by MEE, questions whether bin Zayed is getting a proper return on his investment. It also reveals unhappiness with the Egyptian officials the Emiratis thought they had recruited, because it became clear to them afterwards that they were not as loyal to the Emirates as they were to Egypt.
The strategy paper says that in future the Emiratis should select their partners in Egypt with more care. In a reference to the current campaign in the Egyptian media against the new Saudi ruler, King Salman, and his son Mohammed - which has seen the kingdom attacked for its role in Syria and allegedly over-bearing control of Egypt - the document says they will have to stop the war of words because it hurts Emirati interests. 

Three phases 

The strategy document outlines three phases of investing in Egypt which will start early next year. In the third phase, the Emirates will seek to move from financier to "full partner".
The Emirates should recruit and finance Egyptian think tanks, universities and media outlets, the document says. It goes on to state that these direct investments should have a clear strategy and vision and that every down-payment should be tested for the benefits it will bring Abu Dhabi.
The paper spells out in blunt terms Emirati ambitions to control Egypt. This aim is inherent in a section recommending three conditions for continuing the bailout of Sisi's government.
Those conditions are: removing the petrol subsidy over the next three years by respectively cutting it by 30 percent, 30 percent and then 40 percent annually; demanding that the Emirates should set the strategy for the price of the Egyptian pound in comparison with the US dollar, which would be tantamount to controlling Egypt’s monetary policy; and cutting bureaucracy. Each of these are domestic policies.
The document further reveals the extent to which Sisi has let down his paymasters. One analyst who has been studying the deteriorating relationship between the two countries said: “The criticism indicates that they are not happy with Sisi and that he is not serving their purpose. The main idea the Emiratis have is that MBZ [bin Zayed] should be the real ruler of Egypt and whoever is in charge must do what he is asked to do by them.”

Cause for concern 

There are three reasons for Emirati concern.
First, the Emiratis think the media war that has broken out between Egypt and the Saudi kingdom is hurting Abu Dhabi’s interests. Last month the Egyptian newspaper al-Youm al-Sabea reported a row between the chairman of the state owned al-Ahram media group Ahmed el-Sayed al-Naggar and the Saudi Ambassador to Egypt Ahmad Qattan, which ended with al-Ahram claiming that “even a building in central Cairo” is older than the kingdom. A pro-government TV anchor, Ibrahim Eissa, accused Saudi Arabia of funding terrorist groups in Syria, called on Sisi to stop being "a captive to Riyadh," and urged Egypt to be liberated from the relationship of gratitude to Saudi Arabia. 
Second, the Emiratis are unhappy about Sisi’s broken promises to send ground troops for the Saudi-led campaign against the Houthis in Yemen, a war in which the UAE was forced to commit troops. Sisi used the expression in Egyptian Arabic “masafah as-sikkah,” meaning it would take him the time it needs to cross a road to come to the aid of the Gulf states if they needed military aid. So far, no Egyptian troops have materialised on the ground in Yemen.
Third, they complain that Sisi is not listening to them when they ask for economic and administrative reform or when they demand that good governance be used as the basis of a stable state.


“From Abu Dhabi’s point of view, Sisi has not performed. He does not have a strategy for economic reform. Services are very bad. So from the Emirati perspective Sisi is not doing what he is told to do," the analyst, who spoke to MEE on condition of anonymity, said. "In the coming phase, starting early next year, the Emirates are planning this extensive campaign. They are not deserting him [Sisi] and he is still their man, but nor are they happy with him. They want total submission, so that they are the real rulers."

Relations with Riyadh 

Sisi’s relations with Riyadh also worsened after he discovered that a rival Egyptian army general has been in the kingdom for the past two weeks holding private talks.
Sources close to the kingdom reveal that Egyptian military intelligence asked the Saudis why Sami Anan, a former chief of staff, was there. They were told Anan was there on a private visit and in an individual capacity and there was nothing the government in Riyadh could do to stop it.
Anan was second only to Mohammed Hussein Tantawi when Mubarak was ousted in 2011. He was sacked by Mohamed Morsi when the latter became president in 2012. However, when Morsi was in turn ousted by a military coup a year later, Anan announced his ambition to be a presidential candidate. He is 70 and is regarded as close to Washington; he was in the US at the time of the 25 January revolution.
According to the informed Saudi sources, Anan is one of three names being considered to replace Sisi. The others are Ahmed Shafiq, a former general who is at present in exile in Abu Dhabi, and Murad Muwafi, a former head of the General Intelligence Directorate, who like Anan was sacked by Morsi. Both Shafiq and Muwafi are regarded as close to the Emirates.
In his conversations with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, King Salman has made no secret of his wish to keep the military in charge of Egypt. Saudi Arabia regards the Egyptian military as the only guarantor of the country’s stability, and it is stability rather than democracy that concerns Riyadh.
However, that calculation has changed in the past three months to the extent that Salman no longer regards Sisi as a stable leader of Egypt. They think Sisi’s term as leader has expired, so they are examining who within the military could take over, as well as reaching out to all sections of the Egyptian political opposition, most of whom are in exile.
Anan, regarded as a calm but wily leader who is naturally risk averse, is a leading candidate for Saudi favour. He has a strong claim to represent the Egyptian military, although those very credentials render him suspect to Egyptian opposition forces, who recall his time in the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, which ruled Egypt from Mubarak's overthrow to Morsi's election and oversaw the country while the blood of protesters was being spilled in Cairo's Tahrir Square. 
“If they are looking for a military figure, Anan is the best option. But someone accepted by the military is not going to be accepted by the majority. That is where Anan’s problem would be,” said one member of the Egyptian political opposition.


- See more at: http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/exclusive-emirati-plan-ruling-egypt-2084590756#sthash.WqHcIbIC.dpuf


 محمد بن زايد  للسيسي  أنا مش مكنة فلوس

تحت عنوان "الخطة الإماراتية لحكم مصر" قال الكاتب البريطاني ديفيد هيرست  إن وثيقة إستراتيجية كشفت أن محمد بن زايد ولي عهد أبو ظبي أصبح يشعر بالإحباط من أداء الرئيس عبد الفتاح السيسي.

وإلى نص التقرير
كشفت وثيقة إستراتيجية إماراتية تم إعدادها لصالح الشيخ محمد بن زايد آل نهيان أن الإمارات تفقد الثقة في قدرة السيسي على خدمة مصالح الدولة الخليجية.

الوثيقة المذكورة، التي أعدها أحد عناصر الفريق الخاص ببن زايد، ومؤرخة بيوم 12 أكتوبر، تحتوي على اقتباسين رئيسيين يصفان الإحباط الذي يشعر به بن زايد تجاه السيسي، الذي مول ولي عهد أبو ظبي انقلابه العسكري، وضخ، بجانب المملكة السعودية، مليارات الدولارات.

وقالت الوثيقة نقلا عن بن زايد: “يحتاج هذا الرجل إلى معرفة أنني لست ماكينة صراف آلي".

وعلاوة على ذلك، فإنها تكشف الثمن السياسي الذي سيتكبده الإماراتيون إذا استمروا في تمويل مصر.

الإستراتيجية المستقبلية لا ينبغي أن تعتمد فحسب على محاولة التأثير على حكومة مصرية، ولكن السيطرة عليها.

ولخصت الوثيقة ذلك قائلة: “الآن سوف أعطي ولكن وفقا لشروطي، إذا أعطيت، فلابد أن أحكم".

مصر، التي حاولت مؤخرا وقف تدهور الجنيه المصري، تعتمد بشكل كبير على الأموال القادمة من الإمارات، التي أضحت أكبر مستثمر أجنبي مباشر.

وفي المؤتمر الاقتصادي بشرم الشيخ، والذي عقد في مارس الماضي، كشف رئيس وزراء الإمارات وحاكم دبي الشيخ محمد بن راشد المكتوم أن الإمارات منحت مصر 13.9 مليارات دولار، متعهدا بضخ 3.9 مليارات دولار إضافية.

ويعتقد الكثير من المحليين أن القيمة الحقيقة للمساعدات التي تلقاها السيسي من الإمارات تقترب من 25 مليار دولار، ما يناهز نصف إجمالي المساعدات الخليجية لمصر.

لم يبق الآن إلا 16.4 مليار دولار، بينها 2.5 مليار دولار في صورة ذهب، وفقا لمسؤول مصري سابق طلب عدم ذكر اسمه.

باقي المبلغ على هيئة قروض، وهو ليس كافيا لتغطية تكلفة استيراد السلع الأساسية لشهرين.

الوثيقة، التي اطلعت عليها ميدل إيست آي، حصريا، تطرح تساؤلات إذا ما كان بن زايد يحصل على المقابل الملائم لاستثماراته في مصر.

كما كشفت الوثيقة عدم السعادة من مسؤولين إماراتيين اعتقدت الإمارات أنها جندتهم، إذ بات واضحا بالنسبة أن درجة ولائهم بالنسبة لمصر تتجاوز الإمارات.

الورقة الاستراتيجية ذكرت أنه يتعين على الإمارات مستقبلا اختيار شركائها في مصر باهتمام متزايد.

وفي إشارة إلى الحملة الحالية في الإعلام المصري ضد الملك سلمان، ونجله محمد، والتي شهدت مهاجمة المملكة لدورها في سوريا، وسيطرتها الطاغية على مصر، قالت الوثيقة: إنهم يتعين عليهم إيقاف حرب الكلمات لأنها تضر المصالح الإماراتية.

ثلاثة أطوار
وحددت الوثيقة ثلاثة مراحل للاستثمار في مصر تبدأ العام المقبل.

وفي المرحلة الثالثة، سوف يسعى الإماراتيون للتحرك من مرحلة الممول إلى "شريك كامل".

يتعين على الإماراتيين تجنيد وتمويل مراكز أبحاث ومنصات إعلامية. بحسب الوثيقة.

ومضت تقول: “هذه الاستثمارات المباشرة ينبغي أن تكون ذات استراتيجية ورؤية واضحتين، وضرورة قياس كل فائدة تصب في صالح أبو ظبي مقابل كل مبلغ مدفوع لمصر.

وأفصحت الوثيقة، بمصطلحات صريحة، عن الطموحات الإماراتية للتحكم في مصر.

الهدف المذكور يتضمنه الجزء الذي يوصي بثلاثة شروط لاستمرار الإنقاذ المالي لحكومة السيسي.

الشرط الأول هو إزالة دعم البنزين خلال السنوات الثلاث المقبلة، من خلال تخفيضات سنوية 30 %، و30 %، و40 % على التوالي.

الشرط الثاني هو المطالبة بوضع الإمارات استراتيجية لسعر الجنيه المصري مقارنة بالدولار الأمريكي، وهو ما يعادل التحكم في السياسة النقدية لمصر.

أما الشرط الثالث فيتمثل في الحد من البيروقراطية.

كل من الشروط الثلاثة يفترض أنها سياسات داخلية.

وبالإضافة إلى ذلك، كشفت الوثيقة إلى أي مدى خذل السيسي مموليه.

وقال محلل يدرس العلاقات المتدهورة بين البلدين: “الانتقادات تشير إلى أنهم ليسوا سعداء بالسيسي الذي لا يخدم أهدافهم. الفكرة الرئيسية لدى الإماراتيين مفادها أن بن زايد يجب أن يكون حاكما حقيقيا لمصر، ويتعين على من يتولى المسؤولية في مصر، مهما كانت هويته، أن ينفذ ما تطلبه أبو ظبي".

سبب القلق

ثمة ثلاثة أسباب تدعو الإمارات للقلق:

الأول: يعتقد الإماراتيون أن الحرب الإعلامية التي اندلعت بين مصر والسعودية تضر بمصالح أبو ظبي.

الشهر الماضي، نشرت صحيفة اليوم السابع تقريرا حول مشادة بين رئيس مجلس إدارة صحيفة الأهرام المملوكة للحكومة أحمد السيد النجار، والسفير السعودي لدى مصر أحمد القطان، والتي انتهت بادعاءات النجار أن مباني وسط البلد أقدم من المملكة السعودية.

إبراهيم عيسى، المذيع الموالي للحكومة، اتهم السعودية بتمويل جماعات إرهابية في سوريا، مطالبا السيسي بالتوقف عن أن يكون "أسيرا للرياض"، وحث مصر على التحرر من علاقة الامتنان للسعودية.

السبب الثاني يتمثل في استياء الإماراتيين من كسر السيسي وعودا بإرسال قوات أرضية للحملة السعودية ضد الحوثيين في اليمن، وهي الحرب التي التزمت فيها الإمارات مضطرة إلى إرسال قوات.

وكان السيسي قد استخدم التعبير المصري" مسافة السكة"، والذي يعني أنه لن يستغرق وقتا لمساعدة الدول الخليجية إذا احتاجوا عونا عسكريا.

لكن حتى الآن، لم تشارك قوات برية مصرية في معركة اليمن.

السبب الثالث مفاده أن الإمارات متذمرة من عدم إنصات السيسي لهم عندما يطلبون منه إجراء إصلاحات اقتصادية وإدارية، أو عندما يشيرون إلى أن الحكم الجيد هو أساس الدولة المستقرة.

وقال محلل، طلب عدم ذكر اسمه: “من وجهة نظر أبو ظبي، فإن السيسي لم ينجز. حيث لا يمتلك إستراتيجية للإصلاحات الاقتصادية والإدارية. فالخدمات شديدة السوء. لذلك فإنه من وجهة نظر الإمارات، لا ينفذ ما يُطلب منه".

وتابع: “في المرحلة المقبلة، التي تبدأ الشهر المقبل، يخطط الإماراتيون لتنفيذ حملة واسعة. إنهم لم يتخلوا عن السيسي، وما زال رجلهم، لكنهم ليسوا سعداء به، ويريدون خضوعه التام، وأن يكونوا حكاما حقيقيين".

العلاقة مع الرياض
علاقة السيسي بالرياض ساءت أيضا بعد أن اكتشف أن جنرالا مصريا غريما للسيسي كان في زيارة سرية للمملكة، وعقد محادثات خاصة.

وكشفت مصادر مقربة من المملكة أن المخابرات الحربية المصرية سألت السعودية عن أسباب زيارة سامي عنان، قائد الأركان السابق.

وأجابت السلطات السعودية أن عنان كان هناك في زيارة خاصة، وفردية ليست ذات علاقة بالحكومة، ولم تكن للرياض أن تمنعها.

عنان كان الرجل الثاني في الجيش بعد محمد حسين طنطاوي عندما عزل مبارك عام 2011.

واتخذ الرئيس الأسبق محمد مرسي قرارا بإقصائه من منصبه عام 2012.

وعندما عُزل مرسي بدوره عبر انقلاب عسكري عام 2013، أعلن عنان طموحه للترشح للرئاسة.

عنان يبلغ من العمر 70 عاما، ينظر إليه باعتباره مقربا من واشنطن، حيث كانت في الولايات المتحدة وقت ثورة 25 يناير.

ووفقا لمصادر سعودية مطلعة، فإن عنان أحد ثلاثة أسماء تتم دراستها لخلافة السيسي.

الاسمان الآخران هما أحمد شفيق، الجنرال السابق الذي يعيش حاليا في المنفى بأبو ظبي، ومراد موافي، مدير المخابرات العامة السابق، الذي أطاح به مرسي مثل عنان.

وينظر إلى كل من شفيق وموافي باعتبارهما مقربين للإمارات.

وفي محادثات مع الرئيس التركي رجب طيب أردوغان، لم يخف سلمان سرا بشأن رغبته في استمرار تقلد الجيش المسؤولية في مصر.

السعودية تنظر إلى الجيش المصري باعتباره الضامن الوحيد لاستقرار البلاد.

الاستقرار لا الديمقراطية هو ما يشغل الرياض.

ومع ذلك، فقد تغيرت الحسابات خلال الشهور الثلاثة الماضية، لدرجة أن سلمان لم يعد ينظر إلى السيسي كقائد مستقر لمصر.

إنهم يعتقدون أن فترة حكم السيسي كقائد للبلاد قد نفدت، لذا يدرسون من يستطيع أن يحل محله داخل الجيش، بالإضافة إلى التواصل مع كافة أقسام المعارضة السياسية المصرية، الذين يتواجد معظمهم في المنفى.

وينظر إلى عنان باعتباره قائدا هادئا لكنه ماكر يتجنب المخاطر، وهو مرشح مفضل يصب في الصالح السعودي.

عنان يمتلك ادعاء قويا بأنه يمثل الجيش المصري، لكن ذات مؤهلاته تحوله إلى مصدر شك بالنسبة لقوى المعارضة، الذين يتذكرون الفترة التي كان مسؤولا فيها داخل المجلس الأعلى للقوات المسلحة، الذي حكم مصر منذ عزل مبارك إلى انتخاب مرسي، وأشرف على الوطن بينما كانت تُسفك دماء المتظاهرين في ميدان التحرير.

وقال معارض سياسي مصري: “إذا كانوا يبحثون عن شخصية عسكرية، فإن عنان هو الاختيار المفضل. لكن شخصا ما مقبول من الجيش لن يكون مقبولا من الأغلبية، وهي المشكلة التي ستجابه سامي عنان"

11/13/2015

SISI MUST GO , before it is too late

11/13/2015 0
SISI MUST GO 
 Before it is too late



With each planeload evacuating Russian and British tourists, Sharm el-Sheikh can feel its life blood ebbing.
Arthur, on a fixed salary of $255 ($63 more than Egypt's minimum wage) says: “I don’t know what happened on that plane. I have a feeling we are being manipulated and I prefer not to think about it. I think the West is trying to force Egypt to do the things it wants and this accident is a perfect opportunity for it to force us to, force us in a financial way.”
Ahmed, a diving instructor turned taxi driver, agrees: “They want to kill us. I don’t see any other explanation. Here, there are only Russian and English tourists left, and those are the ones who are going home.”
The Western plot to kill Sharm el-Sheikh is richly orchestrated by the linguistic creativity of the pro-government media. When a stranded British tourist harangued the British Ambassador John Casson, she was reported by pro-government Al Ahram as saying: “We want to continue our holiday and we do not want to leave now.”
What she actually said (documented in a YouTube clip)




was: “What is the problem? What is the real problem? Why are we here? ...There was a security problem this morning and you are now here to resolve it. Why are we here then, while the rest of the people have gone home?”


Foreign hands are also, apparently, at work in Alexandria. When storms and heavy rain caused widespread flooding in Egypt’s second largest city, killing 17 and injuring 28 - which happens regularly because the city’s drainage system cannot cope - the government’s response was to arrest 17 members of the Muslim Brotherhood, who are accused of blocking sewage pipes, damaging electricity transformers and rubbish containers.

There are other scapegoats for state failure. On Wednesday, the prosecution in Giza released one of Egypt’s most powerful businessmen and his son, Salah and Tawfik Diab, on $6,385 bail, after three nights in detention. Earlier, a criminal court cancelled a decision to freeze the financial assets of Diab, Mahmoud El-Gammal and 16 others. Only assets related to the New Giza housing compound project are still frozen, with Diab accused of illegally acquiring state-owned land. These are Egypt’s richest men and former backers of the coup in 2013. Diab is co-founder of Al-Masry Al-Youm, one of Egypt's largest privately-owned daily newspapers. His co-founder, Hisham Kassem, says he believes Diab's arrest may have been a result of the paper's coverage.

The arrest of the 16 Mubarak-era businessmen was a message from the government. Wael al-Ibrashi, the pro-Sisi TV anchor in Dream TV, spelt it out. He quoted a “sovereign source” meaning a top government or security official who told him that there are suspicious actions by a number of businessmen to cause chaos and economic crisis in the country by transferring their money outside the country. They were convinced by enemy sources that there will be a major event happening in Egypt soon.
The financial markets are unimpressed by these pyrotechnics, although they agree that the state’s finances are going south. The Egyptian Pound is on its fastest decline since the reign of King Farouk. Changing the governor of the central bank, which is now trying to support the pound by getting interest rates to rise and injecting dollars into the banks, is not going to stop a further devaluation which analysts say is inevitable. Already that pound has lost 14 percent of its value in just ten months.
Mohammad Ayesh, writing in Al-Quds Al-Arabi, gives three reasons for the decline and fall of the currency: the cost of keeping the army on the streets; the collapse of tourism which accounts for up to 11 percent of GDP and generates a fifth of the country’s foreign exchange earnings; and lastly corruption. Giving money to an Egypt, where up to 40 percent of the economy is controlled by the army, is literally pouring money into a black hole. As a consequence, the foreign currency in the central bank is currently dropping by $1bn each month.
Egypt’s currency crisis must be regarded as unique in the annals of financial mismanagement. Just over two years ago, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi took over, his wallet stuffed with cash: he had the backing of two of the Gulf’s richest states, the US, EU and oil and gas multinationals. By one measure alone, the leaked and authenticated tapes of conversations Sisi had with his closest advisers, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait gave Egypt $39.5bn in cash, loans and oil derivatives between July 2013, the date of the coup, and sometime between January and February of 2014. Since then, some calculate the sum is closer to $50bn. Where has all this money gone? One thing is for sure: Egypt is not going to get another Gulf handout.
Wherever you look in the chaos of Egypt today, the finger points at one man - Sisi - and at one institution - the Egyptian army. It is he and it, not “foreign hands” which are at the epicentre of the country’s instability.
Dictators can do bloodshed. Neither youth gunned down in their prime, nor the grief of their parents, make them hesitate. Comparisons between Raba’a and other massacres like Tiananmen, or Andijan mean little to them. Nor does the small library of human rights reports and witness statements which now exists to catalogue their crimes - death in detention, torture in custody, kangaroo courts, mass death sentences. All this Sisi has absorbed.
But rottweilers have to provide protection. They have to do their job. Sisi does not. He is now weaker as an absolute ruler than at any time since he took over. He faces the real and imminent prospect of losing control - over the economy, politics, and security. The state itself is failing.
Curiously that visit to London, in which he had vested so many hopes and so much effort, might yet prove to be the turning point in his presidency. And even more curiously, it was his host, David Cameron, a prime minister who has subverted a foreign policy ostensibly based on promoting democracy to a frantic search for trade and arms deals, who turned out to be his chief executioner.
Sisi spent the week saying he had Sinai and the Islamic State (IS) militant group under control.
A Russian airliner downed by a bomb placed in the luggage compartment? That was nothing more than “propaganda”. His twin aims were to position himself as the guard dog in the war against IS and to increase trade links. Both were shattered by Cameron’s decision to suspend flights to Sharm el-Sheikh, a decision followed by Dutch, German, Irish carriers and by Russia itself.  
Sisi found himself cut out of the intelligence loop he had fought so hard to be at the centre of, not only for Sinai, but Libya and Syria, too. The Americans, British and Russians were sharing intelligence with each other, not him. A visit arranged to increase British-Egyptian security co-operation, a visit designed to cement trade ties with one of Egypt’s largest foreign direct investors turned into an intelligence disaster and a wake for Egypt’s tourist industry.
Sisi is losing battles on multiple fronts. The physical one in Sinai first and foremost: the IS insurgents known as 'Wilayat Sinai' - or Sinai Province (SP) - are growing in strength. It and its predecessor conducted more than 400 attacks between 2012 and 2015, killing more than 700 military officers and soldiers, nearly twice the number of military casualties in one province of Egypt than the insurgency that took place in the whole of the country from 1992 to 1997. The SP’s most daring attack took place in July this year when it targeted 15 military and security posts and destroyed two. Over 300 men took part. They used anti-aircraft Igla missiles to force the Egyptian army’s US-supplied Apaches away. They mined their retreat. The operation lasted for 20 hours.
The insurgency in Sinai preceded the military coup. But the coup changed its character and its quality. Figures provided by the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy show that in the 23 months before June 2013, there were 78 attacks, an average of 3.4 attacks per month. In the same period after the coup, there were 1,223 attacks, or 53.2 attacks per months. That is a 1,464 percent increase.
Sisi has thrown everything at the population of North Sinai: extrajudicial killings of 1,347 people, the detention of 11,906, the deportation of 22,992, the destruction of at least 3,255 buildings. As his Israeli backers are now admitting, Sisi is making every mistake in the counter-insurgency rule book. He has indeed turned Sinai into South Sudan, which he himself warned army officers not to do when he worked for Morsi.
Even more important than the physical battle is the political one. Sisi has been as careless with his supporters as he has been with Egypt in general. Sisi has emptied the polling booths, with dramatically low turnouts for elections. The turnout for the recent parliamentary was so low  - under three percent on the first day - that the Abdullah Fathi, the head of the Egyptian Club for Judges said: "There were no wrong doings, no irregularities, no exchange shouting, and even no voters . . . " And then he laughed.
The supporters of the 3 July military coup have each been on a slow but brutal journey of discovery. They have been slow to admit it. None more so than the Soueif family.
Laila Soueif and her son the blogger and hero of the secular left, Alaa Abd El-Fattah, both encouraged the army to clear Raba’a and al-Nadha sit-ins. Laila said: “This protest in al-Nahda, in particular, must be dispersed immediately by the police. We see them every day in Giza shooting at the sky, then they hold banners saying peaceful protests, peaceful what? Every day they kill people and say they (killers) were baltagia (thugs paid by the Ministry of Interior). I didn't see any baltagia."
While Alaa said: “This is an armed protest and, for over a day now, there have been clashes.
They have fought in four residential areas. There is no political solution to this, this needs a security solution. At least contain them, my mother and I were attacked as we were walking through. I'm not saying hurt them. I'm saying contain them.”
Today Alaa is in jail, one of 41,000 political prisoners and Laila has been on hunger strike. Laila says: “Sisi is the head of the most oppressive and criminal regime Egypt has seen during my lifetime, and I am almost 60.”
She is right, belatedly. Sisi is the head of the most oppressive and criminal regime Egypt has seen in its modern history and he has to go. If he does not, Egypt is set on a path of disaster, a disaster that could end in the disintegration of the state and mass emigration to Europe. Before that happens, someone else must step in, even if, as seems increasingly likely, that someone else is another army officer.
David Hearst is editor-in-chief of Middle East Eye. He was chief foreign leader writer of The Guardian, former Associate Foreign Editor, European Editor, Moscow Bureau Chief, European Correspondent, and Ireland Correspondent. He joined The Guardian from The Scotsman, where he was education correspondent.
The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Eye.
Photo: Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi arrives at 10 Downing Street to meet British Prime Minister David Cameron on 5 November 2015 in London (AA)
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